Message from Churchill to Matsuoka

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1 Apr 1941

I venture to suggest a few questions which it seems to me deserve the attention of the Imperial Japanese Government and people.

Will Germany, without the command of the sea or the command of the British daylight air, be able to invade and conquer Great Britain in the spring, summer or autumn of 1941? Will Germany try to do so? Would it not be in the interests of Japan to wait until these questions have answered themselves?
Will the German attack on British shipping be strong enough to prevent American aid from reaching British shores, with Great Britain and the United States transforming their whole industry to war purposes?
Did Japan's accession to the Triple Pact make it more likely or less likely that the United States would come into the present war?
If the United States entered the war at the side of Great Britain, and Japan ranged herself with the Axis Powers, would not the naval superiority of the two English-speaking nations enable them to dispose of the Axis Powers in Europe before turning their united strength upon Japan?
Is Italy a strength or a burden to Germany? Is the Italian Fleet as good at sea as on paper? Is it as good as it used to be?
Will the British Air Force be stronger than the German Air Force before the end of 1941, and far stronger before the end of 1942?
Will the many countries which are being held down by the German army and Gestapo learn to like the German more or will they like them less as the years pass by?
Is it true that the production of steel in the United States during 1941 will be 75 million tons and in Great Britain about 12 1/2, making a total of nearly 90 million tons? If Germany should happen to be defeated, as she was last time, would not the 7 million tons' steel production of Japan be inadequate for a single-handed war?

From the answers to these questions may spring the avoidance by Japan of a serious catastrophe, and a marked improvement in the relations between Japan and the two great Sea-Powers of the West.

Source: Japanese Intelligence in World War II
Added By: C. Peter Chen